Authors note: This expands on a comment I left on Groundviews here, in response to my last article In defense of the JVP campaign to support Sarath Fonseka.

Tamils must not play a sectarian role in the presidential election. That’ll be counterproductive. This is not the time for Tamils to do politics based on anger and hatred. Tamils, I think, should realize democratic transformation of the Centre is crucial for them. Also, Tamil-speaking people – including plantation-workers & Muslims and Colombo Tamils- live all over Sri Lanka. Therefore, it’s important to make all calculations in general terms, not in sectarian terms. All parties of the Tamil-speaking people should maintain a solid united front in presenting their demands. They should present them to the General in no uncertain terms. It should amount to a critical support – not a blank cheque.

The presidential election will mark a unique turn in Sri Lankan politics, irrespective of the protagonist’s personal background. This election will change Sinhala majority’s post-independent consciousness substantially. Sri Lanka will never be the same whatever the outcome.

But, it’ll be better if the General wins. For, such a change will accelerate the change. Remember, he doesn’t represent any politically deep-rooted party of the Establishment. That’s positive. A substantial section of the Sinhala majority – who backed the crushing of the Tigers for its separatist/terrorist politics – will oppose the Mahinda-regime in this election for very good reasons. It is absolutely important to educate this section of the Sinhala majority to go beyond their changing mindset. They should be helped to grasp democratic/socialist values. This election campaign provides an unprecedented opportunity to do exactly that. In order to do this, enlightened minority should participate in their experience along with them. This is why JVP’s backing of the General is prudent.

It would have been much better if the entire Left – along with the JVP – took the same stance, and use the electoral platform to educate the people anticipating post-electoral developments. This is why I think Comrade Bahu is wrong to contest independently. Now that he is contesting, he could still use the election-platform for propaganda purposes, and pull out towards the end of the campaign appealing his supporters to vote for the General; I’ve no doubt he’ll be able to give extremely sensible reasons why he’s pulling out. His supporters will surely understand that.

• In defense of the JVP campaign to support Sarath Fonseka
• Wasted vote!
• Is this the end of the Tamil struggle?
• “I need to move out of this camp and have a place of my own”
• An open discourse with Mano Ganeshan on political honesty

There is much  controversy over the fate of the internally displaced persons (IDPs), whom I wish to refer as internally detained persons. In essence, this controversy revolves around the nature of the LTTE, the counter-insurgency strategy of the GOSL, and its criminal effect on over 200,000 detainees. The question of the fate of some 10,000 Tamil political prisoners who are yet to be charged, also hovers in the background. To get some rationality and clarity on these issues, we should raise and answer one fundamental question.

Do the Tamil people who consider the North-East as their areas of historical habitation (homeland) constitute a nation? This question cannot be resolved by piling up archaic archaeological or historical evidence. It is not a question of who came first.  The fact is that the modern Tamil nation has been forged through six decades of political struggle, including nearly three decades of armed struggle, at the cost of immense sacrifice and suffering, against systematic discrimination, national subjugation and violent suppression by the State. If we go by archeological and historical evidence, then the United States would belong to the American Indians, Australia to the aborigines, and Israel would simply lose its right to exist. Modern nations and nation states were forged either through colonial conquest, military aggression and occupation, or by oppressed nations fighting for national liberation, as throughout Asia, Latin America and Africa. Recognition of the political status of the Tamil nation remains a cardinal principle for solving the National Question in Sri Lanka. The Sinhala nation will be dignified by according recognition of the Tamil nation, along with the Hill Country Tamil nationality and the Moslem nationality. This recognition will not diminish, but enhance the political status of the Sinhala nation, and create the democratic foundations for building national unity and reconciliation.  Besides, this supremacist-militarist ideology and politics only serve to deceive the oppressed and exploited Sinhala masses, who will continue to drown in a sea of poverty, indebtedness and degradation. This ideology and politics as concentrated in the political agenda of the present regime will drag the country into even more anarchy, chaos and terror, while the powers that be shall continue to feast on the spoils of blood, profit and plunder.

The fact is that the demand for recognition as a nation had been raised as far back as the 1940’s, when the Tamil national leadership felt that it was to be effectively marginalized and subordinated by the Sinhala hegemonic Comprador ruling class, under the neo-colonial state rigged up by the British. The fact is that the demand for recognition as a distinct nation came to be endorsed by every single Tamil political party and organization that signed the Vadukkodai Declaration in 1978. The immediate background for this assertion was the adoption of the 1972 Republican Constitution, which relegated the Tamil nation to a subordinate status and the Standardization policy which clearly discriminated against Tamil students from accessing university education. Following the police intervention against the International Tamil Literary Congress in 1974 resulting in the death of 12 delegates, the deliberate sabotage of the Jaffna DDC elections by the state and the subsequent burning of the Jaffna library, the LTTE, and several Tamil youth organizations, initiated an armed political struggle to gain recognition of the status of the Tamil nation. The truth is that they resorted to armed struggle only when every other constitutional/ political means to advance the cause of the Tamil nation had been blocked by the state. This was after the adoption of the 6^th Amendment, which simply outlawed the demand for a separate state, which had been mandated by the majority of the Tamil people, and the flagrant sabotage of even the cosmetic District Development Councils elections offered by the State. The LTTE is a product of this intensifying discrimination and violent suppression of the Tamil nation, carried out by every successive government, and now crowned by the present Mahinda Chintanaya regime. Its demand for recognition of Tamil statehood and nationhood is an aspiration shared by all self-respecting Tamils.  All those who love this land and its people, who stand for truth and justice, all genuine patriotic-democratic  forces will continue to struggle for a political solution that recognizes the dignity, equality, security, autonomy and democratic freedom of all the diverse nations, nationalities and communities of Sri Lanka. This is the only way to build a united, independent and democratic Sri Lanka. This is the only way to overcome the politics of division and separation.

The war against the LTTE waged by the present regime was defined as a war to eliminate ‘separatist terrorism’. However, in effect and purpose, the war has been waged to eliminate the political status of the Tamil nation, along with the military liquidation of the LTTE. As a consequence, Sinhala supremacy and hegemony has come to be entrenched as the official state ideology and political policy-as never before. The underlying principle of this ideology and politics is that there is but one, and only one, nation, and that is the Sinhala-Buddhist nation, which alone has the exclusive right to form a state, while all others are to be regarded as aliens. According to this definition, there could be no sharing of state power, except perhaps, on a purely cosmetic administrative basis. Given that the war has been waged on this premise, the regime cannot now compromise on this principle, without provoking violent resistance by the militarist-chauvinist camp which it represents , including within the armed forces. This is the reason that the regime is unable to present a political solution. The irony is that it is this very same ideology and politics of Sinhala supremacy that led to the demand for a separate state in the first place, and rained division and destruction upon our Land and people.

The regime is being besieged by an insurmountable political crisis, an engulfing economic crisis and a volatile moral crisis of legitimacy, for which it has no solutions, except to intensify state repression against any and all resistance. The oppressed masses, including the Sinhala masses have come to recognize the true nature of this corrupt and arrogant Capitalist dictatorship. The regime is facing increasing resistance by the working class, students, graduates and others. It is being seriously challenged by new contenders to the throne in the person of  General Sarath Fonseka, who is also revered by the same Sinhala chauvinist-militarist camp, including within the ranks of the armed forces. The UNP and JVP are also seeking common ground to resist the regime. Under these circumstances, the regime can only survive by intensifying its Sinhala supremacist-militarist-terrorist agenda – at all cost. It can survive only by manufacturing and magnifying the threat of an imminent resurgence of the LTTE, backed by an international conspiracy of traitors to the ‘motherland’, and, on this basis, maintaining the triumphalist war hysteria and relentlessly pursuing its supremacist-militarist-terrorist agenda. This process of creating and magnifying bogeys serves to displace all other burning issues such  as the unprecedented rotting, rampant corruption and abuse, the abysmal failure on the economic front and intolerable burdens heaped on the people, the spiraling crisis of human rights and the damning humanitarian catastrophe. Given these insuperable contradictions, the regime hopes to maintain some degree of legitimacy and popularity by perpetuating myths and creating bogeys. It  survives by manufacturing the bogey of an international conspiracy being hatched by traitors to the motherland. The regime needs to magnify these myths and bogeys as a basis to increasingly militarize and politicize the social and political order, as the one remaining way to maintain its iron grip on state power.

This is one of the reasons why the regime will not release and resettle the internally detained persons, who will continue to languish in the swamps in utter misery, degradation and insecurity. It is patently clear that there is no justification for detaining children, aged, sick and disabled other than to maintain the process of militarization, under the guise of hunting and eliminating the LTTE. If de-mining is the obstacle, just simply on humanitarian grounds, launch and intensive international project to de-mine these areas. Permit us, as citizens of this country, to visit and talk with, and share the suffering and grievances of these detainees, who are an integral part of our human family. Let the independent media and the Opposition have access to these detainees, so we can witness and testify, and serve the cause of truth and justice. Why the enforced militarization and perpetuation of a humanitarian catastrophe, which brings such shame on, and which defiles, all of us. This enforced militarized detention is part of the political agenda of the regime. The release of these detainees is bound to intensify the issue of human rights violations and war crimes- if the truth gets out by those who witnessed and suffered its worst consequences.

So, there will be no acceptable compromise political solution under this regime, even within an undivided country, for which we stand. There will be no immediate release and resettlement of the internally detained Tamil citizens. There will be no justice for Tissainayagam. The war against the free media and against freedom and democracy will only intensify. Beyond that, this process will succeed only in planting the seeds of separatism more deeply and on even more fertile soil, drenched by blood and nurtured by such human sacrifice and suffering.

All those who cherish freedom and democracy, who are nurtured by the milk of humanity, who stand for the unity and integrity of this country, should unite to resist and defeat the supremacist-militarist political agenda of the regime. Equally, they should struggle to ensure that this regime is not replaced by a very same supremacist-militarist coalition of political forces. It is time for the people to think independently of the terms presented and enforced on us by a parasitic and defunct ruling class and advance towards a profound, radical democratic transformation of the prevailing State and political order, where the diverse nations, nationalities and ethnic-religious communities shall share this land as their undivided and inseparable homeland.

• The Case of Tissainayagam: Who is on Trial?
• The Present Political Conjuncture: Fatal Delusions, Momentous Challenges and Historic Opportunities
• Theory and Practice of Democracy in Sri Lanka
• The ‘post-LTTE’ misnomer
• Dr. Devanesan Nesiah on post-war / post-LTTE Sri Lanka

In a one dimensional interview with the Daily Mirror, General Sarath Fonseka outlined his grievances before the people and we got an idea why he is running for the highest office in the land.

It was a litany of personal woes. Just about the whole interview was about what has been taken away from him by the Rajapakse brothers since the end of the war. More specifically, the interview dealt almost exclusively with the issue of reducing his security detail. To give him credit, he knew exactly how many personnel, support staff, vehicles and special forces were involved in providing security for the President, the Secretary of Defense, his nemesis the former Navy Commander, wife of Lakshman Kadiragamar, the current Commander of the Army, one Brigadier and so on. He also knew how long former heads of armed forces had stayed at their official residences after retirement and the diplomatic posts bestowed on them. In between, almost as an after thought, he made a few general statements about the country being corrupt, the need to establish democracy in the country and the importance of freedom of the press.

Well, at least the people will know his priorities if elected the President. He will firstly increase his own security detail; secondly reduce the security detail of everyone else; and thirdly bring in legislation to streamline how long retired commanders of the armed forces can stay in their official residences after the end of their call of duty. And the country will be on its merry way to peace and prosperity.

When the General talked about restoring democracy, fighting corruption and restoring media freedom he sounded vague and less than convincing. According to the gospel of Sarath Fonseka, the country is corrupt. Well, I beg to differ on this. The way I see it, it’s the politicos that are occupying seats of power that are corrupt; not the country. These figures who have been elected (in most cases) by the people to serve the needs of the people have usurped that responsibility and powers bestowed on them for personal gain. The average citizen of SL may be resigned to their unfortunate fate, but he/she is definitely not part of this insidious behavior. The quickest and the most cost affective way to reduce a major portion of that corruption would be to call an emergency session of parliament where all are required to attend; lock the doors and, well, I will leave the rest for your imagination.

On a serious note, the General does not provide specifics on how he will tackle corruption. With regard to restoring democracy and the freedom of the press, he is even more vague. What does he mean by restoring democracy? Abolish the Executive Presidency in favor of an Executive Premier? Scrap the PR system in favor of direct elections to the Parliament a la pre-1978? Bring in spending caps? Public financing of elections and candidates? Strengthening the powers of Provincial Councils? Bring in independent civilian oversight committees?

We don’t know. We aren’t told.

In terms of expanding and guaranteeing the freedom of the media to be open, independent and critical, a President could do much by simply repealing/removing all of the restrictions placed under the guise of national security and the prevention of terrorism. Let the people be the judge of the veracity of the media. Not exactly rocket science or molecular biology, is it?

But, we don’t know what the General means when he refers to strengthening media freedom.

The General did not touch on the economy. I guess he needs to read up on the 25 year plan.

President Rajapakse on the other hand is a seasoned politician with good oratorical skills and a mean and efficient political machine at his disposal. He can most definitely talk the talk. However, outside the realm of overseeing the successful conclusion of the war against the LTTE, he has not walked the walk. His presidency seems a voyage of self discovery and self fulfillment. He has efficiently and calculatedly built up his image by espousing nationalist and religious causes. He has strengthened his rule by creating a cult of personality around himself. He has cowed all opponents by dividing and scaring them into submission. He has elevated the concept of divide and rule to an art form.

Most unfortunately, he has subjugated his vision of a united, self sufficient and peaceful SL to the more self indulgent need to cling on to the Presidency at any cost. He has equated the needs of the country with his personal needs and desires. As a result, the country has been left to lurch on auto-pilot on many fronts. Many of his economic and foreign policies have been purely reactionary. He has failed to translate his vision into the practical realm of governance.

Since 1982 the people of Sri Lanka have been going to presidential polls hoping for a heart of gold and they have ended up giving each president a pot of gold.

Currently, we have one sure candidate in the sitting president. It’s looking more and more likely that Sarath Fonseka will be the Common Opposition Candidate. If the general throws his hat in the ring, we will have 2 candidates with puffed up chests saying that he loves the country more than the other and that they will protect the country’s Sinhala Buddhist people from real and imaginary evil. Or yeah, both will also take credit for ending Prabakaran’s reign of terror. The General will bare his soul to the nation and tell us how hurt he is by the way the Rajapakses have treated him since he single handedly beat Prabakaran’s terrorists. He will (he has already started the ball rolling on this one) identify all the current and former GOSL officials who have a bigger security detail than him. He has and will pick personal fights with former and present military personnel who do not agree with his assertion that he is the personal savior of the nation. The President on the hand will likely say that he and his brother are the true heroes who single handedly wiped out terrorism from the land and that the General is an egomaniacal imposter. When you read between the lines, you will realize that the President is basically making the point that it is better to go with a tried and tested megalomaniac than an egomaniac in training. That would be the sum of their political platforms.

Sri Lanka’s economy has shown resilience even in a time of global recession. However, that is probably more due to the economy’s relative low exposure to global markets than any policy undertaken by the current regime. Inflation is running at double digits. Jobs with a living wage are hard to come by. Basic services such as garbage disposal are in need of urgent overhaul. The energy sector is heavily overburdened and cannot cope with the growing demands of the populace. The state sector is bloated with patronage jobs and is largely unproductive and a drain on the economy. Law seems to be in the written form only. Order is hanging by a thread. People have lost faith in the Police (look at the number of suspects in police custody who have been killed while trying to “escape”). The independence of the judiciary is severely compromised by political meddling as are the armed forces. Trade unions and student unions are up in arms against government policies or the lack of them. Public transportation cannot cope with the demand of a growing and an increasingly mobile population. The country is disturbingly polarized along ethnic and religious lines. The list goes on and on.  

One would think that with such a litany of concerns, all candidates would be dying to share their vision and mission to combat these issues with the electorate. One would also think that the long suffering people of the country would demand the same of their candidates. To the contrary, the rhetoric has been largely limited to the superficial and the people seem to have resigned themselves to a battle of machismo. Maybe we deserve the leaders we elect, but what about the generations to come? How are we going to answer our children and grand children when they ask; “didn’t you care?”

I am going to go out on a limb here and get on a soapbox. Presidential elections should be about leadership and not about aggrandizing or hanging on to power at any cost. It should be about putting the needs of the country before self. Leadership is not about occupying and controlling corridors of decision making so you can feel important and dish out favors to your friends and family. Leadership is not a job; it’s a calling. Leadership is not bestowed on one because of kinship, it must be earned. The President of a country has a sacred duty to act in a manner that serves the greater good and makes all its members feel included. In other words, the President is the patriarch or the matriarch of that society. A President should not choose favorites because everyone citizen is a member of his/her extended family. A leader holds things together; he/she does not sow division among his family to further personal gain.

A country such as ours with a diverse population with diverse views, religions and languages needs a Leader as its President. This is truer now than ever. Sadly, I only see opportunists and timer servers. The choice before the people is between the lesser of two evils.

Maybe my sense of gloom and doom is premature. Nobody would be happier to have been off the mark on this than I, but signs indicate that the next presidential election will be more of the same excrement with one new orifice.

• Elections in the East
• Rajapaksa vs Fonseka: Tweedledum vs Tweedledee?
• Rupavahini, Ranil and the media
• The unwritten revelations of Sarath Fonseka’s letter requesting retirement from service
• Rights, democracy and an “incorrigible” common candidate

The ongoing “Rajapaksa-Fonseka battle” is a blessing in disguise for the Tamil-speaking people and the Sinhalese despite its immediate appearances; because the upcoming debates are bound to change the confused Sinhala consciousness on an unprecedented scale.

The JVP’s decision to back the General as a tactical move to get rid of the utterly corrupt Rajapaksa-regime is sensible indeed, to say the least. Fonseka is a political novice, therefore, he is malleable. He is thoroughly cornered by the reactionary establishment; and therefore, his pliability is increasing by the day. That’s a positive thing. The chances of him suddenly turning into a dictator after an electoral victory is very little indeed. If he does a social revolution will be on the cards; and it’ll be the duty of the JVP to lead the people towards real democracy & real “poverty eradication” along socialist principles.

Comrade Bahu’s decision to contest, I believe, is wrong. It will confuse the Tamils and mislead the Sri Lankan intelligentsia. And, this will only benefit the present regime to retain power. Instead, the Left should unite with the JVP to use this opportunity to educate all communities about democratic politics and socialist economics as the prelude to big changes later.

In this context, the unity established among all “Tamil-speaking people” (Tamils, Muslims & Plantation Workers) is also a positive development whatever the limitations and contradictions it has at present. [Tamil votes are going to be crucial to the outcome of the impending elections and all Tamil & Muslim parties should present common demands - a justifiable political solution before the candidates – a solution that can be easily understood by the man on the street.

It should, in my view, be essentially a Unitary Solution – a solution that is beneficial to all Tamil-speaking people living right across the island: There should be two Regional Assemblies – one for the Tamil-dominated region and one for the Sinhala-dominated region. A democratically-transformed Centre - equipped with the Highest-Level Institutions related to security and economic planning of the island as a whole – should be the centerpiece of the New Constitution. The regional Assemblies should be empowered to handle all lower-level institutions primarily related to regional cultural and economic development – in harmony with the central vision. [I see no reason why such a constitution cannot be designed for the benefit of all communities.]

However, I must add that the democratic transformation of Sri Lanka should be inseparably intertwined with an economic vision. The JVP and the SL Left should use the election campaign to expose the Rajapaksa-regime’s total submission to the imperialist economic project. Above all, the deepening gulf within the ruling class should be fully utilized to equip the masses with a democratic/socialist vision, while doing the most practical thing to get rid of the existing regime in the impending presidential election.

• Mangala’s party and the Citizen’s dream
• A malicious “patriotism” and its impact on media and journalists
• One year of Mahinda Chintana
• ISSUES FOR TAMIL NATIONALISM: REVISITING PUBLIUS
• Caught between the real and virtual in Sri Lanka

In the past few weeks newspapers were rife with speculations of a possible presidential or parliamentary election that was ‘coming soon’. Confirming most of these speculations, President Mahinda Rajapakse announced the presidential elections and sent directives to the election commissioner to do the needful in this regard.  Ending the long speculation of the common candidate, the UNF and the JVP also announced that they will field General Sarath Fonseka as their common candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Political analysts are already busy with their predictions on the outcomes of the most awaited hustings.  Political Analysts and regular newspaper columnist who unconditionally supported the Rajapakse regime and General Fonseka during the war are now finding themselves in total discomfiture, as on the one hand, they want to seal their allegiance to President Rajapakse by predicting his potential victory while also being careful not to deny General Fonseka’s ability to be a formidable challenge to that.  I guess, this precarious stance can only be appreciated given the obvious prevailing conditions.

As the incumbent, President Rajapakse has access to public resources and will be able to mobilse the government apparatus for his electoral advantage as all the previous presidents did in the past. In addition, the spectacular victory against the LTTE that ended 30 years of war in the country would definitely make President Rajapakse a more popular presidential candidate than what he was in November 2005.  His personal charisma, Sinhala Buddhist outlook and his links to the South has made him more popular than any party leader in the country. Therefore, as many political analysts pointed out, few months ago, his victory at a presidential election was a highly predictable and an overwhelming one. The opposition’s finding of a potential checkmate in General Fonseka has made making predictions of elections results no longer easy.

Of course, understandably the government is irritable over General Fonseka’s political debut as he has the potential to eat into Rajapakse’s nationalist vote bank. This prompted the government and its allies to further criticize the opposition of being severely weak as they could not find a candidate from their own parties to contest. That is true! So what? What would determine the election result which is highly unpredictable at the moment? Is it the party, personality or something else that plays the central role in the presidential election?

If one looks at the presidential elections around the world we have evidence to argue that in some cases the party and in others’ the personality was instrumental in bringing about electoral victories. In the US presidential election of 2009, probably the world’s most celebrated election victory, Barak Obama used his party machinery to the maximum while exploiting his charisma and his unique social condition elegantly, to draw support across the party lines. If we reexamine the 2005 presidential election in Sri Lanka, I believe that Rajapakse deserved full credit for his marginal victory over the UNP candidate, because he did not enjoy the full benefit of the party machinery that he belonged to at a time when he had bitter relationship with the former president Kumaratunga, who was also the leader of the SLFP. However, he managed to rope in Sinhala nationalist and anti-UNP parties to elevate himself to strong presidential candidate. During the 2005 election campaign, Rajapakse formed his own new alliances with JVP who was at loggerhead with his party, to support his election campaign.

Like in many democracies that practice presidential system, in Sri Lanka’s presidential election also, the main candidates drew electoral support beyond their party bases by using cleavages based politics in addition to the support he/she received from his/her party bases. At the 2005 election, JVP decided to support Rajapakse despite pulling out of the SLFP led government barely a year before. The JHU, who voted against the UPFA in parliament defeating the UPFA speaker candidate DEW Gunasekara, nevertheless, extended their support for Rajapakse at the election.  This shows that presidential candidates, especially the front runners, are not necessarily  prisoners of political parties. These candidates can and would walk across parties using their multifarious skills and strengths while capitalizing on the party allegiance of voters toward his/her party. Hence, I believe even the upcoming presidential election could turn out to be a battle between two individuals with an advantageous potential of ‘the war hero’ walking into Rajapakse’s Sinhala nationalist voter base while also enjoying the support of the bases of the UNP and the JVP.

However, unlike in the previous elections, in the forthcoming election President Rajapakse will be able to fully mobilize not only his party machinery but also his position as the executive president to get himself reelected for the second term. The recently released ‘thousand rupee’ currency note with the identical picture of that on his election campaign poster is perceived as the extreme use of his good office for electoral benefit. On the contrary, his opposition contender, General Fonseka, will resort to mobilizing the party machineries of UNF and JVP who recognize him as their common candidate.  Hence, this time round, candidates will use not only use their own popularity but also party machineries to achieve their goals.

What worked in 2005?
What worked for Rajapakse at the 2005 presidential election? According to the pre-election poll reports (Social Indicator-CPA, 2005), people placed their confidence in the capacity of the UNP candidate, Ranil Wickramasinghe on the issues such as handling the peace process, reducing the cost of living, and Tsunami reconstruction.  Masses felt that Rajapakse is more capable in terms of preserving law and order, protecting Sri Lankan culture, safeguarding the country and protecting their religion. However, the Sinhala community placed greater trust in Rajapakse than in Wickramasinghe on all the issues including the handling of the peace process. On the contrary, the ethnic minority communities, Tamils, Muslims and Estate Tamils placed overwhelming trust in Wickramasinge on all the issues put forward to them. So, it was evident that Rajapakse was a strong preference of the Sinhala community due to his Sinhala nationalist appeal as was shown by the poll results. Hence, despite the overwhelming support of the minorities, Wickramasinghe lost the election simply due to his inability to convince majority of the Sinhala community of the country.

What would work in 2010?
First of all a remarkable difference in the political context then and now are well recognized by the author. The war and the LTTE, that bred the Sinhala nationalism in south is no longer present and as a result has diminished the strength of the ethnic cleavages in mobilizing electoral support in the present political context. However, although, there are attempts to revive the Sinhala Buddhist ultra nationalism (with anti conversion bills etc) that is fast losing its currency, I do not believe that Sinhala nationalism would be a decisive factor at this election. Not only because there is no visible threat to the Sinhala Buddhists that parties can capitalize on, but even if one manages to find such a threat during the election campaign, both candidates are equally capable of tapping into such a nationalist voter base. Then there was widespread anger and disappointment over the UNF peace process and the violence of the LTTE that President Rajapakse greatly benefited from. At present, President Rajapakse and General Fonseka are sharing the same share of credit for destroying the LTTE and achieving what Sinhala national preferred as the best solution to the country’s ethnic conflict. More importantly, the LTTE is not there anymore to impose forced election boycott that helped Rajapakse immensely to achieve his marginal victory over the UNP candidate, Wickramasinghe. Even if the LTTE’s so-called transnational government wanted to enforce election boycott this time, their capacity to make it an effective imposition on Tamils in Sri Lanka is highly doubtful. Therefore, famous campaign issues such as, rampant corruption, establishing democracy, fighting against dictatorship, criticism towards dynastical politics, unemployment, waste of government resources and cost of living etc would once again gain credence in mobilizing voters for or against a candidate.

People decide their party support on the basis of various factors. In a utopian world, voters are adequately informed on party and party policy and they make a rational choice in selecting their party or candidate by maximizing the benefits for them. However, in reality, people hardly know much about the parties and their policies, so, they use some ideological position to distinguish them from other (us vs them). As it was shown in the pre-election poll, once they chose their electoral choice, people considered their candidate as educated, honest, experienced and gifted with good leadership skills, although sometimes quite contrary to the reality. Hence, the million dollar question is what would be that decisive factor that people would use to decide their presidential candidate. Obviously, in the previous election they were ‘ethnicity’ and ‘national security’. If it is competition between socialist and liberal camps we could assume that ‘class factor’ would play a crucial role. However, ironically, in this election the left and the right seem to have found common grounds against the incumbent.

Conclusion
So, how does one rally voters around each candidate in this presidential election?  On one hand, General Fonseka, who claimed that this country belongs to the Sinhala Buddhists seems to beckon minority voters, especially Tamils as the presidential candidate. On the other hand, President Rajapakse, who entertained ultra-Sinhala Nationalist over four years, now claims he is expecting a mandate of the people of the North and East. So, in this context, candidates would not be able to approach neither a rational voter nor an ideology based voter to receive their support. Thus, I can imagine only two possible scenarios.  A worst case scenario would be a highly violent election that would lead to widespread election malpractices allowing certain elements to rob the vote particularly in the recently liberated North and East.  The best case scenario would be that the two candidates and their parties begin a rigorous bargaining process with other smaller parties and also possibly with local representatives of the rival political camp pitching in. Especially as most parties are affected by internal defections, there is a great potential for candidates to approach certain sections of their rival parties in forging alliances. In addition, since minority parties too have shown interest in joining alliances, this option would be further tempting to the main candidates. The candidate who forms the largest alliances would be in an advantageous position to win the upcoming presidential election. So let’s wait and see how fascinating partnerships would emerge in days to come.

Pradeep Peiris is a pollster and he heads the Social Indicator, the survey research unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives.

• Wasted vote!
• Presidential hopefuls and escape-routes for the ‘hopeless’
• A response to Kusal Perera on political honesty and questioning Sarath Fonseka
• Rajapaksa vs Fonseka: Tweedledum vs Tweedledee?
• SERENDIPITY AND INGRATITUDE: THE MAHINDA MIRACLE AND JANAKA PERERA’S ASSASSINATION IN RETROSPECT